Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
