Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
